5,000 Years of History Reveal Why Our Civilization Is Destined for Self-Destruction

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Cambridge researcher’s groundbreaking analysis of human societies reveals the hidden patterns driving us toward global collapse—and the radical changes needed to survive

What if everything we’ve been told about human progress is fundamentally wrong? What if “civilization” itself is nothing more than sophisticated propaganda designed to justify domination? These aren’t the musings of a fringe theorist—they’re the conclusions of Dr. Luke Kemp, a researcher at Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, whose seven-year analysis of 5,000 years of human societies has produced some of the most disturbing insights about our species’ trajectory.

In his groundbreaking book “Goliath’s Curse,” Kemp presents a radical reframing of human history that challenges every assumption we hold about progress, leadership, and the future of our interconnected world. His research into over 400 societies reveals a pattern so consistent it’s chilling: civilizations don’t just collapse—they’re designed to self-destruct, driven by a small number of individuals exhibiting what psychologists call “dark triad” traits.

Most unsettling of all is Kemp’s stark assessment of our current moment. Unlike the regional collapses of the past, today we face something unprecedented: the potential collapse of a single, globally interconnected system. As Kemp puts it bluntly, “self-termination is most likely.” But within this grim diagnosis lies a roadmap for transformation—if we’re willing to fundamentally reimagine how human societies function.

The Myth of Civilization: Redefining Human Progress

Kemp’s first radical proposition is abandoning the word “civilization” entirely. He argues this term is “really propaganda by rulers” that obscures the true nature of hierarchical societies. Instead, he uses the term “Goliaths”—a reference to the biblical giant felled by David’s slingshot—to describe what he sees as societies built fundamentally on domination.

This reframing isn’t merely semantic. When examining early kingdoms and empires in the Near East, China, Mesoamerica, and the Andes, Kemp observes, “you don’t see civilised conduct, you see war, patriarchy and human sacrifice.” Rather than representing human advancement, these societies represent what he calls “evolutionary backsliding” from the egalitarian hunter-gatherer communities that had sustained themselves for hundreds of thousands of years.

“Instead of progressing, we started to resemble the hierarchies of chimpanzees and the harems of gorillas.”

This perspective forces us to reconsider fundamental assumptions about human nature and progress. If our current trajectory represents regression rather than advancement, it suggests that the path forward might involve returning to principles that served our species for millennia rather than doubling down on systems that have consistently led to collapse.

The Three Fuels of Domination Throughout History

Kemp’s research reveals that Goliath states don’t emerge randomly but require three specific conditions he calls “Goliath fuel.” Understanding these prerequisites for domination provides crucial insights into how hierarchical power structures develop and maintain themselves.

The first fuel is surplus grain. Unlike perishable foods, grain can be “seen, stolen and stored,” making it an ideal foundation for accumulating wealth and power. Kemp points to Cahokia, a North American society that peaked around the 11th century, where the introduction of maize and bean farming directly led to the emergence of a priest-dominated elite practicing human sacrifice.

The second fuel is weaponry monopolized by one group. Bronze swords and axes provided decisive advantages over stone and wooden tools, and the first Mesopotamian Goliaths emerged alongside these technological developments. Control over superior military technology has remained a cornerstone of domination throughout history.

The third fuel—”caged land”—occurs when geographic barriers like oceans, rivers, deserts, and mountains prevent people from simply walking away from emerging tyranny.

Early Egyptians found themselves trapped between the Red Sea and the Nile, unable to escape the pharaohs’ expanding control. This geographic constraint is crucial because it removes the ultimate check on power: the ability to leave. When people can’t exit, they become vulnerable to exploitation and control.

These three fuels explain why domination systems emerged in specific locations and times throughout history, and they remain relevant today as we consider how power concentrates in our interconnected world.

The Dark Triad: How Psychopaths Shape Our World

Perhaps Kemp’s most disturbing finding is that Goliath systems aren’t driven by universal human greed but by a small percentage of individuals high in “dark triad” traits: narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism. This challenges the common assumption that inequality emerges because “all people are greedy.”

The evidence suggests otherwise. The Khoisan peoples of southern Africa, for example, “shared and preserved common lands for thousands of years despite the temptation to grab more.” Most humans, Kemp argues, are naturally egalitarian and cooperative. The problem lies with the small minority who seek domination at any cost.

Kemp sees this pattern reflected in contemporary leadership, noting that “The three most powerful men in the world are a walking version of the dark triad: Trump is a textbook narcissist, Putin is a cold psychopath, and Xi Jinping came to rule [China] by being a master Machiavellian manipulator.”

“Our corporations and, increasingly, our algorithms, also resemble these kinds of people. They’re basically amplifying the worst of us.”

This analysis extends beyond individual leaders to institutional structures. Modern corporations, driven by profit maximization regardless of social or environmental costs, exhibit many characteristics of psychopathic behavior: lack of empathy, disregard for consequences, and manipulation of others for personal gain.

The implications are profound: if societal collapse is driven primarily by individuals with dark triad traits rather than human nature itself, then solutions must focus on preventing such individuals from accumulating power rather than trying to change fundamental human behavior.

Why Today’s Global Collapse Would Be Unprecedented

While past civilizational collapses were often regional and sometimes beneficial for ordinary people, Kemp warns that today’s potential collapse would be fundamentally different and far more catastrophic. Three factors make our current situation uniquely dangerous.

First, the scale of modern weapons. Previous collapses involved violence with “swords or muskets,” but today’s arsenals include approximately 10,000 nuclear weapons capable of ending human civilization. As elites try to reassert dominance during collapse, the destructive potential is incomparably greater.

Second, our dependence on complex systems. Unlike people in the past who “could easily go back to farming or hunting and gathering,” modern populations are highly specialized and dependent on global infrastructure. “If that falls away, we too will fall,” Kemp observes.

“Today, we don’t have regional empires so much as we have one single, interconnected global Goliath. All our societies act within one single global economic system—capitalism.”

Third, the magnitude of current threats. Past climatic changes that triggered collapses typically involved 1°C temperature changes at regional levels. Today we face 3°C of global warming, along with artificial intelligence, engineered pandemics, and other unprecedented risks.

After the fall of Rome, Kemp notes, “people actually got taller and healthier” because they escaped oppressive taxation and returned to sustainable farming. But today’s interconnected world offers no such refuge—there’s nowhere to retreat when the global system fails.

The Path Forward: Democracy, Equality, and Transformation

Despite his pessimistic assessment, Kemp offers concrete solutions that could prevent collapse through fundamental transformation of how societies function. His recommendations are radical but historically grounded.

Genuine Democratic Participation: Rather than representative democracy that can be captured by elites, Kemp advocates for “running societies through citizen assemblies and juries, aided by digital technologies to enable direct democracy at large scales.” Historical evidence shows that more democratic societies tend to be more resilient.

Wealth Redistribution: Kemp proposes capping individual wealth at $10 million, arguing that extreme inequality inevitably leads to elite capture of democratic systems. “A famous oil tycoon once said money is just a way for the rich to keep score. Why should we allow these people to keep score at the risk of destroying the entire planet?”

“If you’d had a citizens’ jury sitting over the [fossil fuel companies] when they discovered how much damage and death their products would cause, do you think they would have said: ‘Yes, go ahead, bury the information and run disinformation campaigns’? Of course not.”

Individual Responsibility: Kemp also emphasizes personal action: “Don’t be a dick. Don’t work for big tech, arms manufacturers or the fossil fuel industry. Don’t accept relationships based on domination and share power whenever you can.”

These solutions may seem utopian, but Kemp argues we’ve been “brainwashed by rulers justifying their dominance” for so long that we can’t imagine alternatives. “We’re a naturally social, altruistic, democratic species and we all have an anti-dominance intuition. This is what we’re built for.”

Conclusion: Defiance in the Face of Collapse

Kemp’s research presents us with an uncomfortable truth: the trajectory we’re on leads almost inevitably to self-destruction. His analysis of 5,000 years of human societies reveals consistent patterns of elite-driven collapse that our interconnected world seems destined to repeat on a global scale.

Yet within this grim diagnosis lies a profound insight about human nature itself. We are not inherently greedy or violent—we are “naturally social, altruistic, democratic species” whose potential has been hijacked by systems designed to benefit a small minority of individuals with dark triad traits. Understanding this distinction is crucial because it suggests that transformation, while difficult, remains possible.

Perhaps most importantly, Kemp argues that hope isn’t necessary for action. “Even if you don’t have hope, it doesn’t really matter. This is about defiance. It’s about doing the right thing, fighting for democracy and for people to not be exploited. And even if we fail, at the very least, we didn’t contribute to the problem.”

Join the Conversation

Do you think Kemp’s solutions—citizen assemblies, wealth caps, and individual resistance—could realistically prevent civilizational collapse? Or are we too far down the path of the “global Goliath” to change course? Share your thoughts on what it would take to transform our current trajectory.

This analysis is based on Dr. Luke Kemp’s research published in “Goliath’s Curse” and reported in The Guardian. The views presented reflect academic research on historical patterns of societal collapse and should be considered alongside other perspectives on civilizational development and sustainability. Read the original Guardian article here.

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